Australia Politics By Jessie Cooper

Australia: Budget Betting Bonanza

There’s one certainty about next Tuesday night’s budget by Treasurer Scott Morrison - the recent experience of the Canberra legislative circus suggests that promises will prove like pie-crust - easily made and easily broken.

 

But bookmaker William Hill reckons there’s one near certainty about budget night: Treasurer Morrison will get a peck on the cheek at the end of his budget speech by Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop.

 

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is also long odds-on to give his man a squeeze and a shake of the hand as the government benches break out into applause and cheers.

 

But what will be the key budget theme? Good old fashioned nationalism will surely be up there again. In the departed Joe Hockey’s speech last year “Australia/n” topped the list of most used words with “business” not far behind with “small business” being a large part of that.

 

Tax/taxation always gets a big run in budget speeches and this year is unlikely to be different. But will it beat the 76 references in last year’s speech?

 

William Hill reckons it’s a close run thing with more than 76 references in Scott Morrison’s speech being $1.60 and fewer at $2.10

 

Julie Bishop to give Treasurer Scott Morrison a kiss on the cheek at the end of his budget speech:

Yes $1.02

No $10.00

 

Malcolm Turnbull to give Scott Morrison a handshake and/or a bit of a squeeze at the end of his budget speech:

Yes $1.02

No $10.00

 

Tax to get more than 76 references in the budget speech:

Yes $1.60

No $2.10

 

“Small business” to get more than 42 references in the budget speech:

Yes $1.60

No $2.10

 

Full markets available here: https://www.williamhill.com.au/financials

 

The most used keywords in last year’s budget speech by the Treasurer:

 

Australia[n] 106

Workers 8

Business 86

Trade 8

Tax 76

Families 8

Budget 54

Deficit[s} 8

Small 52

Unemployment 6

Small business 42

Terrorism 6

Plan/planning 26

Revenue 6

Economy 20

Health 6

Fair 18

Transition 4

Infrastructure 16

Surplus 4

Safe[r] 14

Security 4

Pension 14

Responsible 4

north(ern) 14

Productivity 4

Jobs 14

Innovation 4

Future 14

Expenditure 4

Strong[er] 12

Education 4

Services 12

Debt 4

Investment 12

Superannuation 2

Growth 12

States 2

Farmers 12

Private sector 2

Child care 12

Employees 2

Exports 10

Depreciation 2