Politics By Graham Sharpe

Reckless Rochester?

UKIP are 1/4 to double their total of MPs by winning the Rochester by-election, via defecting Tory MP Mark Reckless. The Conservatives are 11/4 to hold on to the seat; Labour 16/1; Lib Dems 200/1, with Nick Clegg's Party 1/6 to lose their deposit, 7/2 to retain it.

Following UKIP’s victory in the Clacton by-election, William Hill are offering odds of just 6/4 that two or more current MPs will defect to the Party between now and the General Election. ‘With UKIP hot favourites at 1/ 4 to acquire a second MP as a result of the Rochester by election any MPs considering whether to jump ship may well decide that there is unlikely to be a better time to do so’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

And the country's biggest bookmakers now believe UKIP's most likely tally of seats at the General Election is Five or more, which they quote at 11/8. Hills also offer 2/1 that they will have One or Two; 4/1 Three or Four; and 9/2 None at all.

The odds that UKIP will be involved in a coalition government after the General Election have been cut from 25/1 to 6/1 by William Hill following the Clacton by election.

HOW MANY CURRENT MPs WILL DEFECT TO UKIP BETWEEN NOW AND GENERAL ELECTION?....Evens None; 6/4 Two or more; 7/2 One

HOW MANY MPs WILL UKIP HAVE AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTION?....11/8 Five or more; 2/1 One or Two; 4/1 Three or Four; 9/2 None.

ROCHESTER BY ELECTION…..1/ 4 UKIP; 11/4 Tories; 16/1 Labour; 200/1 Lib Dems. (Lib Dems 1/ 6 to LOSE deposit; 7/2 to retain it).

NEXT UKIP LEADER…5/2 D CARSWELL; 4/1 P O’FLYNN; 5/1 D JAMES; 6 S WOOLFE; 7 P NUTTALL.

OUTCOME OF NEXT GENERAL ELECTION…..10/11 No overall majorty; 15/8 Labour majority; 3/1 Con-Lib coalition; 10/3 Con majority; 4/1 Lab-Lib coalition; 6/1 Coalition involving UKIP; 7/1 Labour minority govt; 7/1 Tory minority govt; 100/1 UKIP majority; 500/1 Lib Dem majority.

LARGEST SINGLE PARTY: 4/5 Labour; Evens; Cons; 66/1 UKIP.

TO RECEIVE MORE VOTES AT GENERAL ELECTION? 4/11 UKIP; 2/1 Lib Dems.

ED MILIBAND TO STAND DOWN AS LEADER PRE-GENERAL ELECTION?.....6/1 YES; 1/12 NO

LIB DEM SEATS AFTER GENERAL ELECTION….9/4 31-40; 5/2 21-30; 4/1 41-50; 6/1 11-20; 6/1 51 OR MORE; 12/1 0-10.